Leading technology experts are warning the pace of technological change caused by automation and changes to working practices like remote working will create huge social dislocation.
According to academics and business sources interviewed for Future Intelligence’s PassW0rd radio programme, Living the dream, broadcast in the second week of January 2023, employers and politicians around the world are unaware of the extent of the changes that robotics, AI and remote working will cause in the 21st century.
“This is happening very rapidly indeed. We’re already in it. It’s not 45 years away. It’s a few years away,” said David Smith, Chief Executive of the think tank Global Futures and Foresight, adding that we have now left the ‘information age’ and entered the ‘intelligent era’.
Smith, a former board member of the Institute of Directors, says a debate on digitalisation and changes brought by automation is essential.
“It’s now time to start the discussion about, if you lay off staff, for example, should you retrain them?”
It’s already here
Currently the most visible change to work practices is the rapid move to remote and hybrid working. A trend that is exciting academics, employers and employees alike that promises profound changes in city centres. Changes caused by companies scaling back on offices in ‘Central Business Districts’. A change that will then impact the CBD’s attendant restaurants, pubs and takeaways, as businesses build their company headquarters inside computer servers.
It’s a process that in some parts of Europe will be exacerbated by another trend towards shrinking cities highlighted by the EU. A trend that has seen people, particularly in high-tech work moving to rural areas. A change accentuated by the refusal of many staff to return to the office. It’s a refusal that has drawn the ire of their bosses.
According to the New York Times, in May 2021 David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, told workers to get ready to return to work the next month to encourage more in-person collaboration and shared culture.
While Elon Musk ended Twitter’s “work from anywhere policy” in an email to employees. After buying the company Musk said they must work at least 40 hours a week from the office.
Though not ordering a return, Disney’s Chief Executive, Bob Iger told employees that: “I worry long term about the negative impact on people who have decided not to spend as much time at the office.”
Yet the employer’s bluster appears to have hit a brick wall. Remote working employees are literally voting with their feet.
Employees drag feet on workplace return
Musk, slightly more than a week after demanding a return recanted. Instead of demanding a return he said all that was required of remote employees was managerial approval ‘ensuring excellent work’.
A recognition of reality according to Julia Pollak, chief economist of the Online employment marketplace ZipRecruiter.
“Many, many companies in recent months have insisted that people come back to the office five days a week only to reverse that mandate within about a week after hearing that they’d lose their brightest and best.”
The US companies are not alone. A UK survey by Gigabit Networks of over 3000 employers and workers found that 83% of businesses wanted employees based within the office at least 3 days a week. Unfortunately, only 20% of employees were prepared to do it. A whopping 41% of employees questioned stated that they didn’t want to return to the office at all.
Remote working gateway to metaverse office
The research found employees were more interested in returning to work to save money on their heating bills (33%) or socialise with colleagues (51%) rather than improve productivity. Of those employees questioned, 90% stated that they considered the quality of their work to be superior when produced at home. With a staggering 85% stating that they achieved more at home than in the office.
According to those interviewed for the programme, remote working is the beginning of the metaverse office. Simply engaging in remote working they say is an intellectual recognition of being in a virtual environment. A development that will increase as companies create software to render the work worlds of before. It’s a trend Martyn Ware, the former keyboard player with the pop group Heaven 17, underlined. His company Illustrious, builds highly realistic virtual sound scapes for metaverse worlds.
“It’s already happening. When we’re talking about international leaders’ summits, for instance, or major CEOs talking to the heads of departments of multinational companies, there are plenty of bespoke systems where you can sit in a boardroom. There are projections of the different participants from around the world appearing in the room. We use individual sound sources to accurately locate them. They can interact and share documents in a virtual space on the screens.”
Software to create serendipity
A view backed up by Leslie Wilcocks, who accountants PwC hailed as one of the world’s leading authorities on the automation of work and digital transformation. Wilcocks, is the Emeritus Professor of Work, Technology and Globalisation at the London School of Economics’ Department of Management. Speaking in The virus that started the 21st century an episode of PassW0rd broadcast at the beginning of the pandemic, Wilcocks confirmed work is being done to create the highly valued face to face interactions of the office with software.
“I’ve witnessed some of them and they’re very powerful,” said Wilcocks. Commenting on remote working he added: “Previous studies show there are great improvements in net productivity from remote working clearly that will be amplified. If you can make it feel like you’re in an office, it will be equivalent to a full day’s work. They’ve also shown employee attrition decreases by up to 50%.
“People who homework, take shorter breaks, take fewer sick days, take less time off. There’s also reduced carbon emissions from fewer cars clogging up the morning commute. Companies also save $2,000 to $5000 per employee on rent by reducing the amount of HQ office space,” said Professor Wilcocks, though, like Disney’s Iger, he still expressed concern about employee interaction.
Tech adoption will change cities
“Having a virtual office is one way to go. I’m sure that’s going to accelerate, but the social consequences of homeworking are greatly underrated. In the past, there have been moves back to real social contact.”
Moves back to the office though that may not stick this time. According to the award-winning organizational psychologist Dr Jack Wiley, author of ‘The Employee-Centric Manager’, remote working has created a tension employers are finding it difficult to resolve.
“We understand the dynamics that went into the changes, but we’re seeing employee resistance. In a recent study I saw, it showed the number of job openings allowing remote work have declined in the US. They’re getting fewer applicants as a result. Prospective employees are looking at jobs where remote work is not allowed, or not a significant part of their work week and they’re saying ‘no’ to those opportunities.
“Yet employers are providing the opposite pressure, they have significant office leases. If they’ve empty space in their offices they see a drain of money. Many believe they get better productivity, collaboration, teamwork, and improvement if they have people working face to face. So, there’s a tension, it’s unresolved, and I don’t think it’s going to be resolved in the immediate future. I think this is a situation where the dust is going to have to settle.
The intelligent age
“The number one source of employee dissatisfaction is a negative relationship with their immediate boss. I think a lot of organisations probably need to place more emphasis on how they’re preparing managers to be good managers,” said Wiley.
He added that the removal of process orientated jobs means work will increasingly be more intellectual and fun. Motivating workers in the future, Wiley says, will mean that office managers will have to learn from their counterparts in sport. To motivate staff, they will have to present work as fun rather than the puritanical presentation we have had to date. Work, says Wiley will become more and more creative and demand much higher levels of education.
And automation, caused by the coming of age of AI and robotics, will replace the repetitive processes that made up much of the work in our economies since the industrial revolution. Meaning automation is now poised to replace many jobs in transport, on building sites and in factories.
AI to significantly cut into manual tasks in next decade
As Smith says: “It’s not just technology becoming good at doing what manual workers did, laying bricks, construction, and putting scaffolding up. It will be using 3D fabrication systems to build buildings. You can put a 2000 square foot home in 48 hours that’s stronger than a traditional brick and concrete-built house. This is already happening in Dubai; they’ve committed this technology to 25% of their new buildings. They’ve built a 6700 square foot building with one machine that’s moved around the site by four people.”
It’s technological innovation that Smith says, will leave many people behind as it outstrips the ability of humans to compete. Smith’s ominous prediction are backed up by studies forecasting the use of robotics in trains, production and road transport.
Changes to the future of work acknowledged by Dr Wiley. “In the last 10 to 15 years we’ve seen dramatic increases in the implementation of technology – massive steel manufacturing plants are now operated by skeleton crews of people who manage and operate them.”
According to Smith it’s a revolutionary change in working practices and models that will increase. Mainly because of the move towards digitalisation the adoption of 3D modelling technologies and the cloud. The LSE’s Wilcocks, backs Smith.
Firms embracing tech outpace rivals
“Those companies that have already become digital businesses, are going to inherit the future. So, the high-tech companies, Big Pharma and healthcare,” said Wilcocks.
“These are going to be the successful businesses of the future. Whatever sector we’re talking about, there are some financially resilient companies and those that are not particularly financially resilient. So, there will be a big sorting out. If they’ve got technology helping them, they will be more resilient than other companies in their sector. The top dogs will gain enduring advantage from successfully adopting technologies.
“Our research shows, and I’ve looked at hundreds of companies that have moved to digital, that 20% of the organisations that have moved successfully to digital are breaking away from other companies in terms of profitability and financial health.
“The gulf that they are establishing in their sectors is likely to become irreversible. Some 25% of the companies behind those organisations are struggling to get there while the remaining 55% are really struggling. I don’t think the pandemic experience is going to help them much.
“There’s going to be a big sorting out of successful versus unsuccessful companies with weak companies going to the wall. Even if they’re supported by government for a while. The weak companies that are not going to inherit the future. They are going to be seriously harmed over the next two to three years.”
If Wilcocks is right, another factor that will effect the CBD will be a decline in demand for office space caused by company failure. A decline some experts are predicting that will see a change of use with offices being converted into living space.
